Hard Truths is a monthly newsletter about national, state, and local issues, with some sassy personal updates from the author – Heather Schmidt, M.PA – Public Policy Consultant, Political Analyst, and Mom of Three. Beginning in Spring 2025, this newsletter will be available in audio, video, or digital print versions. Please subscribe for newsletters and other updates!

Hard Truths

March 2025

Well if January was a year in just a month, March (so far) has been an eternity. I’m not sure what it is, but the constant chaos of the daily news cycle, coupled with a lot of things going on here locally and in my own life, this month seems like it should be over when it’s just begun.

So much so, there’s already enough for a newsletter. Let’s get to it.

National Nonsense

The volatility of the market these last several weeks, along with rising unemployment (mostly due to public sector layoffs) and consumer confidence remaining at historic lows, suggest a recession is on its way. To make matters worse, mainstream media has started publishing articles titled something along the lines of “how to make it through a recession.” The White House, at the same time, seems unconcerned, and many people believe this is intentionally being done to force the hand at the Fed to bring down interest rates.

Depending on who you ask, there are a lot of theories floating around about what is going on in the economy right now, including whether or not it’s intentional. I’m here though, as your resident public policy consultant, to provide some friendly reminders:

1. While terms like “trade wars” have made the news, and a lot of spicy rhetoric is coming out of a lot of people’s mouths, it’s important to note that all tariff threats have fizzled before they went into effect. Prices have not gone up because of tariffs.
2. In fact, estimates now suggest inflation has dropped below 2%.
3. The bulk of jobs gained under the Biden Administration – sadly – were public sector. I say “sadly,” because on this talking point, many of the critics of Biden were right. So as the Trump Administration engages in layoffs across all agencies, unemployment numbers are bound to rise. Some people have suggested that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve was always going to be temporary, and that the only way to truly deal with inflation would be with higher unemployment figures. It’s possible that inflation taking a downturn is a result of those layoffs.
4. Concerns around people’s stocks and 401ks are absolutely valid; however, we have been in a high employment recession for two years. As we now recently have learned that many communities around the country require over $200,000 in family income to be designated middle class, we are reminded that in recent years the wealth gap has only widened, average Americans have hurt the most, and so while stocks being throttled right now sucks – YES, IT SUCKS – most people haven’t been in a position to trade stocks or contribute to (or even have) 401ks for years now.
5. A recession cannot be called until after two, consecutive periods of economic contraction. So people writing Op Eds and posting dramatically on social media about a recession being baked in are just baiting for engagement. And again… most Americans have been in personal economic contraction for around two years now.

From the Greatest State in the Nation

Well, our governor has officially hit his “lame duck” period of his tenure, I fear, and is devoting his time not to important things, like the spring budget, resolving homelessness, or even addressing our many climate and other concerns here in California. No, he’s focusing his gubernatorial efforts on his new podcast.

I, personally, understand his strategy, now that he’s officially working towards running for president in 2028, which is to meet Republicans where they are by engaging conversation in long form, conversational podcast format. And – not shockingly at all – by having these conversations, they’re actually finding areas of agreement (for which the Democratic Party’s collective head is spinning).

Nevertheless, it would be nice if he got back to… governance.

On that note: the 2026 gubernatorial race is starting to pick up, and Kamala Harris (who hasn’t even announced yet) has taken the lead by as many as 16 points in internal polling. Personally, I think this is insanity. For those unfamiliar, in California we have what’s called a Jungle Primary – everyone votes on everybody, the top two vote getters in the primary go to the general. The result of this is that we may very well see two Democrats running against each other, two Republicans, or some other scenario yet to be determined.

In the meantime, we should know by the end of this summer if Kamala plans to run for governor after losing the presidency. Let’s just hope if she does, she doesn’t blow through another $1.5B on celebrity endorsements…

Just Local Stuff

While there has been plenty of Oxnard drama to speak of, and I have a real juicy bit of gossip I’m not even sure I should put in writing, I have to instead focus this month’s “Just Local Stuff” on our voter registration day of action this coming Sunday. If you’re in the area, please pop by!

A Bit On Me

I find myself mulling, lately, my own next steps. As the situation with my clients and their own job security becomes… muddied… and local and state governments find themselves having to tighten belts in anticipation of more cuts from DOGE and the Trump Administration, I find myself more free to work more for my community. As many or most of you know, I offer my services for free to anyone in Ventura County, but I also am asked regularly if I plan to run for office again. If so, what office? And if I do, how? It is evident that special interest groups and money make it virtually impossible for anyone to run on a platform alone; though the tide may be turning, is it turning quickly enough for me to put my hat in and succeed?

After a conversation with a community member a week or two ago, I woke up the next day thinking to myself: once I figure out how to do what I want to do without money, boy watch out. But then I thought about the substantive changes being made around the community that were a result of my running before, as well as the connections I have made, and continue to make, as I work however I can for the community. When I think of it this way, I realize that in many ways I already have won. I decided to go into public service all the way back in 2004, after leaving an abusive relationship. My idea was that I would work to bring justice into a community that does little justice for women in the type of situation I was in. In the years since, I’ve worked in so many different capacities serving Ventura County. I’ve worked on political campaigns, as a community organizer, for the unions, for political parties, as a neighborhood organizer, as a volunteer, as a consultant, and more. Now, over 20 years later, I see so much work left to do. I just have to figure out how to do it.